The 2026 midterm elections were expected to hinge on “kitchen-table” issues like the high cost of living. Both parties had focused on promising relief for American families struggling with inflation in energy bills, groceries, and other necessities. However, the outbreak of war with Iran—beginning with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military infrastructure—has scrambled those plans.
Democrats are aggressively linking the conflict to worsening economic pressures. With U.S. crude oil futures climbing past $90 per barrel (from around $67 just before the strikes), gasoline prices have jumped nationally to about $3.38 per gallon, up more than 35 cents in a short time according to tracking sources like GasBuddy. Global benchmarks like Brent crude have also exceeded $90, with some analysts warning of further spikes if disruptions in the Persian Gulf persist, including potential closures of key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
Democratic lawmakers argue that the war risks broader “knock-on effects.” Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), a key voice on energy issues, highlighted unforeseen consequences from the lack of planning, noting sharp rises in oil futures and gas prices. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) pointed to increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and utility bills, worsened by global supply squeezes (including issues in Qatar) and U.S. focus on exports over domestic relief. They portray the conflict as diverting resources abroad while Americans face higher energy and living costs.
Republicans, meanwhile, express confidence that the operation will be short and decisive. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) suggested that neutralizing Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones, and nuclear capabilities could quickly stabilize oil flows through the Arabian Gulf, bringing prices down in weeks rather than months. Some GOP figures, like Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), emphasize ongoing domestic efforts—such as last year’s tax and spending measures, boosted energy production, and housing legislation—to show continued action on affordability despite the war.
The war’s unpopularity adds to Republican challenges. A CNN poll from early March found nearly 60% of Americans disapproving of U.S. military action in Iran. This comes amid broader dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s economic stewardship, with a Fox News poll showing 61% disapproval of his handling of the economy. Democrats, including House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) and DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), frame the conflict as a “broken promise” from Trump’s “America First” campaign pledge to avoid endless foreign wars. They accuse the administration of prioritizing overseas spending over domestic needs like healthcare and nutrition programs.
Analysts warn that a prolonged conflict could turn into an election-year liability for Republicans. Brittany Martinez, a former aide to ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and executive director at Principles First, noted that sustained high energy prices or market volatility would complicate the GOP’s affordability messaging. Democrats would tie price hikes to foreign policy choices, while Republicans would counter that strength abroad prevents worse instability.
Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), a former Obama national security advisor, expressed concern over potential long-term U.S. entanglement in a regional power vacuum, calling the approach “reckless.”
With midterms less than eight months away, the war tests whether voters prioritize perceived national security gains or immediate pocketbook impacts. If the conflict resolves swiftly with minimal economic fallout, Republicans may maintain their domestic focus. But if energy costs remain elevated and the fighting drags on, affordability could dominate the narrative—potentially giving Democrats an edge in their bid to flip control of Congress and limit Trump’s influence in his final two years.
