WASHINGTON — Americans are more unhappy with the U.S. economy than ever before, as a sharp rise in inflation fueled by the war with Iran drives up gas prices and hurts consumer confidence. This downturn poses a serious political risk for President Donald Trump and Republicans heading into the midterm elections in November.
The latest data shows inflation jumped in March, the first full month after the U.S. and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28. Iran responded by blocking about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. That disruption caused crude oil prices to spike, leading to the biggest monthly increase in U.S. gasoline costs in years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline inflation rose 0.9 percent in March — the largest gain since June 2022 — pushing the annual rate to 3.3 percent.
At the same time, consumer sentiment plunged to a record low. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 in early April, down more than 10 percent from March. This marks the lowest reading in the survey’s history. The drop affected people across all ages, income levels, and political parties, with every part of the index showing weakness.
The biggest decline came from self-identified Republicans, whose outlook on the economy has worsened sharply even though Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 promising to bring down the high prices that plagued the Biden years. Democrats and independents also rated the economy poorly, but the shift among Republicans stands out.
White House officials are growing concerned that the focus on the Iran conflict, known as Operation Epic Fury, is pulling attention away from everyday economic worries like affordability. Some senior aides, including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, have privately pushed for stronger efforts to address rising prices and highlight the downsides of prolonged high energy costs.
Republican lawmakers have urged Trump for months to spend more time talking about the economy, which remains voters’ top issue. Trump has often declared that inflation is under control and pointed to successes like falling egg prices — which have dropped 45 percent over the past year — and stable costs for food items such as beef and dairy. A White House spokesman noted that prices for many household essentials are either holding steady or declining thanks to administration policies.
However, economists warn that sustained high energy costs could spill over into other areas. Diesel prices, now close to record highs, raise expenses for truckers and farmers. Those costs could eventually show up in higher prices for groceries and other goods if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve quickly.
Public polls reflect growing doubt about Trump’s handling of the economy. Political analysts say this could hurt Republicans as they try to hold onto their narrow majorities in Congress during the midterms, which are now less than seven months away.
The war has created short-term disruptions, as the administration has acknowledged, but officials say they are working to ease the pain. A fragile ceasefire is in place, and talks continue on reopening oil flows. Still, restarting full production in the region could take months.
For many Americans, the pain at the pump feels immediate and real. High gasoline and diesel prices are hitting family budgets hard, and the broader sense of economic unease is spreading. With prices for everyday goods still a major concern, the record-low consumer sentiment signals trouble ahead for the party in power.
This sour mood on the economy could shape voter decisions in November, as few issues matter more to people than what they pay for gas, food, and other basics.
