In a recent report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, lead author Christopher S. Chivvis et al. examine the complex trajectory of U.S.-China relations heading into the 2030s. The study outlines potential futures for the world’s two largest powers and considers how their interactions could shape global stability. With tensions between the United States and China rising across economic, military, and geopolitical domains, the authors propose that, despite challenges, there remains hope for a stable coexistence if both countries can manage their rivalry carefully.
The Best-Case Scenario: Coexistence and Managed Competition
In the most optimistic vision for U.S.-China relations in the 2030s, the two nations manage to strike a balance that avoids major conflict. The Carnegie report suggests that while full cooperation may be unrealistic, coexistence built on mutual respect and carefully managed competition is achievable.
Economic Relations: Selective Decoupling and Stabilized Trade
Economically, this scenario envisions a future where the United States and China avoid total decoupling, especially in sectors like trade and investment. While both countries are likely to engage in technological decoupling—especially in areas related to national security, such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence—they may still maintain a robust trade relationship in less sensitive sectors. This would allow for continued economic growth without exacerbating political tensions over economic dominance.
The report emphasizes that while complete economic separation is unlikely, the key will be managing tensions over tariffs, trade imbalances, and intellectual property. If the U.S. and China can agree on fair trade practices and limit the use of economic coercion, they can avoid the kind of trade wars that have marked recent years. Such agreements could pave the way for more predictable economic relations, helping to stabilize global markets.
Military Balance: Preventing Conflict Over Taiwan
Militarily, the best-case scenario would involve both nations reaching a balance of power in East Asia, particularly around Taiwan, the most dangerous potential flashpoint. The Carnegie experts propose that this balance could be achieved through military crisis-management protocols, arms control agreements, and a clearer understanding of each country’s red lines. By the 2030s, both the U.S. and China may have realized that military parity in the region is essential for preventing escalation and reducing the risk of accidental conflicts.
A key factor here is China’s growing nuclear arsenal, which is expected to reach parity with the U.S. in the coming decade. If both sides acknowledge this balance and engage in arms control dialogues, they could prevent the nuclear buildup from spiraling into a full-fledged arms race. The report points to historical precedents, such as the Cold War détente between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, as evidence that even rival superpowers can negotiate limits on their most dangerous weapons.
Geopolitical Collaboration: Working Together on Global Challenges
In this ideal future, despite their competition, the U.S. and China could find common ground on global issues that transcend their rivalry. Climate change, pandemics, and the development of norms for emerging technologies like artificial intelligence offer opportunities for collaboration. The Carnegie report argues that global challenges of this magnitude require joint efforts from the world’s two largest economies. Cooperation in these areas would not only benefit the U.S. and China but also the rest of the world, reinforcing a sense of shared responsibility.
This best-case scenario hinges on both countries recognizing that while their interests may differ in many areas, cooperation on existential threats is in their mutual interest. If the U.S. and China can establish frameworks for collaboration on these global issues, they may be able to ease some of the tensions that define their broader relationship.
The Worst-Case Scenario: Escalation and Conflict
At the other end of the spectrum, the Carnegie report outlines a much darker vision for U.S.-China relations. In this worst-case scenario, competition intensifies, leading to military conflict, economic decoupling, and a fracturing of the global order.
Economic Decoupling: A Trade War Turned Cold War
If tensions continue to escalate, the U.S. and China could enter a period of deep economic decoupling, where trade, investment, and technological cooperation are severely limited. This would likely result in both countries forming separate economic blocs, forcing other nations to choose sides. Such a split would have devastating effects on the global economy, disrupting supply chains and stifling innovation.
In this scenario, the U.S. might continue to tighten restrictions on Chinese access to critical technologies, while China retaliates by cutting off exports of rare earth elements and other vital resources. The economic fallout from this decoupling could trigger a prolonged global recession, with many countries caught in the crossfire of this economic Cold War.
Military Conflict Over Taiwan: The Worst-Case Flashpoint
The greatest risk in this worst-case scenario is the possibility of military conflict over Taiwan. As China continues to assert its claim over the island and ramps up military pressure, the U.S. may feel compelled to intervene in support of Taiwan. A miscalculation by either side could quickly escalate into open conflict, especially if China believes the U.S. is encouraging Taiwanese independence.
The report notes that both nations are increasing their military presence in the region, with China expanding its navy and the U.S. strengthening alliances with countries like Japan and Australia. This arms buildup raises the risk of accidental clashes, which could rapidly escalate into a larger war. Given both countries’ nuclear capabilities, any conflict could have catastrophic consequences.
Breakdown of Cooperation: Fragmentation of the Global Order
In this worst-case scenario, the global order itself begins to fracture. The U.S. and China, unable to reconcile their differences, may lead competing international systems, with the U.S. focusing on reinforcing its alliances in the West and China expanding its influence in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
The Carnegie report warns that this fragmentation could hinder efforts to address global challenges like climate change and pandemics, as both countries prioritize their strategic goals over global cooperation. Without collaboration between the U.S. and China, the international community would struggle to manage these crises, leading to a more unstable and dangerous world.
The Most Likely Scenario: Managed Competition and Selective Cooperation
While the best and worst-case scenarios represent the extremes of what could happen, the Carnegie experts believe that the most likely outcome lies somewhere in between. This middle path, described as “managed competition,” involves both countries recognizing the dangers of unchecked rivalry and working to establish guardrails that prevent their competition from spiraling out of control.
Economic Interdependence: Cautious Engagement
In the most probable scenario, the U.S. and China remain economically interdependent, even as they continue to compete in key industries like technology. Both nations may accept a certain level of decoupling, particularly in strategic sectors, but they will likely avoid a complete severing of economic ties.
The Carnegie report suggests that both countries will realize that their economies are too interconnected to allow for full decoupling without causing significant harm. As a result, they may settle into a pattern of cautious engagement, where trade and investment continue, but with more stringent safeguards in place to protect national security.
Military Deterrence: Avoiding Conflict Through Balance
Militarily, the U.S. and China will likely avoid direct conflict, but tensions will remain high, especially in East Asia. By the 2030s, the U.S. will have strengthened its alliances in the region, while China will continue to build its military capabilities. However, both sides may recognize the risks of escalation and work to establish crisis-management mechanisms that reduce the chances of accidental war.
The report points to the importance of nuclear deterrence in this scenario. As China’s nuclear arsenal grows, both countries may come to see arms control agreements as essential for preventing a nuclear arms race. While competition will continue, especially over Taiwan, both sides are likely to prefer stability over the chaos of war.
Strategic Cooperation: Addressing Global Challenges Together
In this most likely scenario, the U.S. and China will continue to compete on many fronts but will also find areas where cooperation is necessary. Global issues like climate change, pandemics, and artificial intelligence will force the two countries to work together, even as they remain rivals in other areas.
The Carnegie experts argue that such selective cooperation could serve as a stabilizing force in the broader U.S.-China relationship. By collaborating on these global challenges, both countries can build trust and reduce the risk of their rivalry spilling over into other areas.
Conclusion: A Future of Cautious Coexistence
The future of U.S.-China relations is uncertain, but the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace provides a thoughtful framework for understanding the potential paths forward. While the worst-case scenario involves conflict and economic decoupling, the most likely outcome is one of managed competition and selective cooperation. Both nations have much to lose from an unchecked rivalry, and their leaders will need to navigate a delicate balance between competition and cooperation to avoid catastrophe.
As the 2030s approach, the U.S. and China must prioritize stability, recognize the risks of escalation, and seek opportunities for collaboration where possible. In doing so, they may be able to build a more stable and peaceful world order, even if their rivalry continues to define the global stage.
ACZ Editor: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has done a comprehensive but theoretical projection of the future, that deserves to be considered, but they do not seem to consider that China is already at war with the U.S. that the propaganda, the theft of technology, the product dumping, bullying and other acts do real damage to the U.S. These will elevate over time. It may not be possible to maintain good relations, we may be forced into a complete separation.
