The average U.S. tax refund is trending higher this filing season, according to early data from the IRS, offering good news for many taxpayers amid recent tax law changes.
The 2026 tax filing season, which covers 2025 income, began on January 26. As of February 6, the IRS reported that the average refund for processed returns was $2,290. That’s a 10.9% increase from the $2,065 average at roughly the same point in 2025. Over $16.9 billion in refunds had been issued by that date, reflecting a modest 1.9% rise in total dollars refunded compared to the prior year.
Treasury Secretary and acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” earlier that day, stating that refunds were up 22% so far. However, details on the exact timeframe or comparison weren’t clear, and official IRS data showed the more modest 10.9% figure.
Experts caution that early numbers can be misleading. Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, noted in a January guide that initial refund averages often start lower and rise sharply in mid-February. This happens because the IRS delays issuing refunds that include certain refundable credits—like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC)—until mid-February under the PATH Act. The IRS described current averages as “strong” and expected them to climb further in upcoming reports, such as the one on February 27.
Fewer people have filed early this year, with total returns received down about 5.2% and processed returns down more than 12% compared to 2025. This could influence the averages as more filings come in.
These higher refunds tie into major tax changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (often called the “big beautiful bill”), signed into law in July 2025. The legislation made permanent several provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, boosted deductions and credits (including increases to the Child Tax Credit), and introduced new breaks like no tax on tips, no tax on overtime for some workers, and others. Because many of these applied retroactively to 2025 but the IRS didn’t fully update paycheck withholding tables, many workers overpaid taxes during the year—leading to larger refunds when filing.
President Donald Trump has highlighted this as evidence of his economic policies, promising it would be the “largest tax refund season of all time.” Experts agree refunds could end up significantly bigger overall, but results vary widely by individual circumstances—such as income level, family size, eligibility for new credits, and how much was withheld from paychecks.
For context, the full-season average refund in 2025 was $3,052 for individual filers through mid-October. This year’s early bump suggests many could see more money back, but it depends on your specific situation.
If you’re filing soon, double-check your withholdings, gather all forms, and consider how the new tax breaks apply to you. Larger refunds can provide a financial boost, but they’re essentially an interest-free loan to the government—some people adjust withholdings to keep more money during the year instead. As more data rolls in, the picture will become clearer for taxpayers across the country.
