One of the most common negative responses to Trump’s tariffs is the predicted inflationary increase in gas prices. Most folks understand that the price of gas has an impact on the price of almost everything. It is a line item for every business and household budget. The never-Trump crowd predicted soaring gas prices as a result of the tariffs.
So. What has really happened?
When Trump was elected in November of 2024, the average price of gas at the pump was $3.18 per gallon. In December, it was $3.14. January, $3.20. In February (when tariffs started to kick in), it was $3.24, and in March, the average price of gas was $3.22. Hardly inflationary numbers.
So, what about inflation itself? It is noteworthy that the inflation rate for the first quarter of 2025 as been 3.0 percent in January … 2.8 Percent in February … and 2.4 percent in March. Down … not up, as critics have contended.
While we cannot know the future impact of tariffs on the cost of gas or the inflation rate, or even the future of tariffs as agreements are negotiated — but so far, the critics have been wrong – and misleading. Sometimes outright lying.
The outlook in the longer run is for significantly lower gas prices. That is because of Trump’s oil and gas policies and actions. More gas means lower prices. The more we produce domestically, the less impact from tariffs.
The Trump administration had revised the Democrats’ Clean Power Plan with the Affordable Clean Energy rule. This has essentially allowed for greater fossil fuel production by reducing regulatory restraints designed to force greater use of wind and solar sources.
The Department of the Interior – through the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management – has opened offshore lease sales in the Gulf of (whatever) starting in June. According to the DOI, “By continuing to expand offshore capabilities, the United States ensures affordable energy for consumers, strengthens domestic industry and reinforces its role as an energy superpower.” It will also keep gas prices down and create thousands of new jobs.
Consistent with his “drill, baby, drill” campaign theme, Trump has also opened millions of acres of federal lands for oil exploration and recovery. This reverses a number of Biden restrictions. In addition, Trump has reestablished pro-oil policies from his first term – policies that were either limited or ended by Biden.
The expansion of oil drilling will generate billions of dollars for Uncle Sam and states from lease sales, rental fees and royalties. It also limits America’s need for oil from international sources. It is a win-win for everyone.
While the left-leaning media myopically focuses on issues in which they can spin horrific, mendacious political narratives, there are a lot of campaign promises being kept with good outcomes – and oil and gas production and pricing is one of them.
So, there ‘tis.
