Beef prices in the United States have reached record highs in 2025, putting pressure on consumers and reshaping grocery shopping habits. According to the consumer price index, beef and veal prices surged by 11.3% in July 2025 compared to the previous year—nearly four times the overall increase in food prices. This spike is driven by a combination of environmental challenges, supply chain issues, and new trade policies, leaving many Americans, like 34-year-old Avalos, adjusting how they buy and consume red meat.
Drought’s Lasting Impact on Cattle Supply
A severe drought that began in 2022 has devastated cattle populations in key beef-producing states like Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. The lack of grass and high cost of feed forced ranchers to slaughter cattle early, temporarily boosting supply but shrinking future herds. As a result, U.S. cattle volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since 1951. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the population of beef replacement heifers—cows needed to rebuild herds—was down 3% in July 2025 compared to two years earlier.
This scarcity has driven up the cost of calves significantly. Phil Durst, a farm educator at Michigan State University, noted that the price of a standard calf rose from $1.48 per pound in 2018 to $3.22 in 2024, with projections reaching $4.40 in 2025. Experts like Derrell Peel, a professor at Oklahoma State University, explain that rebuilding herds is a slow process since cattle produce only one calf at a time. “It took several years to get here. It’s going to take several years to get out,” Peel said.
Climate change is also making droughts more frequent and intense, particularly in grassland regions like the Western U.S., further threatening cattle production. Although the 2022 drought has eased in some areas, pockets of Texas and Kansas remain affected, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Tariffs Add to the Price Hike
The Trump administration’s trade policies have compounded the issue. Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter and a major supplier to the U.S., now faces a 50% tariff on its imports, implemented in August 2025. This levy, a response to Brazil’s prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro, adds to an existing 26.5% tariff and is expected to sharply reduce Brazilian beef imports. Brazil had been filling the gap left by declining U.S. production, with imports rising over 60% in May 2025 compared to the previous year, according to USDA data.
Other beef suppliers, like Australia, face a 10% tariff, while Mexico, typically a top-five beef exporter to the U.S., has been cut off since May due to a deadly cattle disease called New World screwworm. These restrictions tighten the beef supply further, driving prices higher. Andrew Coppin, CEO of Ranchbot Monitoring Solutions, noted that imported beef, often leaner cuts used for hamburgers and taco meat, plays a critical role in the U.S. market. The tariffs disrupt this balance, affecting the type and cost of beef available.
Consumer Response and Market Trends
Despite soaring prices, American demand for beef remains strong. A recent S&P Global report citing USDA data shows no significant drop in beef consumption in 2025, though projections suggest a decline in 2026 if prices stay high. Michael Gunther, vice president at Consumer Edge, noted that red meat sales have held steady, but some consumers are adapting. For example, Avalos now limits his family’s red meat consumption to once a week, stretching two pounds of meat to last all week instead of a single meal.
Others, like 26-year-old Nico Bran, continue eating beef four times a week by cutting costs elsewhere, such as using cheaper spices. Some shoppers are switching to lower-priced cuts, like New York strip instead of rib eye, or turning to alternatives like beans or tofu, though these options are less popular with meat lovers. Chicken offers a more affordable alternative, with prices dropping 0.4% from July 2024 to July 2025 due to lower feed costs from a strong corn and soybean harvest.
The Road Ahead
The combination of reduced cattle supply, persistent drought risks, and trade disruptions suggests that high beef prices are here to stay for the foreseeable future. David Anderson from Texas A&M University emphasized that the current cycle of low supply and high demand is intensified by long-term drought effects. Ranchers face tough choices: sell calves now at record prices or keep them to rebuild herds, a decision complicated by high feed costs, which have doubled in some cases.
As grocery prices overall have risen 26% since the pandemic, according to food industry analyst Phil Lempert, beef stands out as a particularly expensive item, with ground beef exceeding $6 per pound for the first time. With additional tariff-related price increases expected by the end of 2025, consumers may face further strain, especially those with tight budgets.
For now, Americans’ love for beef persists, but the rising costs are forcing tough choices at the grocery store. Whether it’s eating less meat, switching to cheaper cuts, or exploring alternatives like chicken, families are feeling the pinch of a market shaped by weather, policy, and economic realities.
